Professional Macro & Fundamental Research for Forex Traders
Learn to read the research
These guides explain the measures implemented in FX Fundamental Desk. They describe methodology, not a current trade recommendation. Always check the published snapshot and the dates of the underlying sources.
Currency scores: separate the measures
The fundamental bias combines macro data at 50%, news at 25%, and the rate cycle at 25%. The result is rounded to a whole number. At least two of these inputs must be available. Missing inputs are excluded, and the remaining weights are rescaled to add up to 100%.
The factor contribution is its score multiplied by its effective weight. Adding the unrounded contributions reproduces the fundamental bias before rounding. A missing input is not a neutral reading: it reduces coverage.
The combined score is a separate model measure built from price momentum, news, COT and macro inputs. Its weights depend on the model. It can differ from fundamental bias and is the measure used in the homepage's combined-score ranking. The dated ranking at /waehrungsstaerke/ uses fundamental bias instead.
Seasonality and risk sentiment provide additional pair context. They should not be assumed to be inputs into either formula. Do not add all the factor rows together; several measures reuse the same information.
The Desk pair fundamental bias is (base currency bias − quote currency bias) / 2. The division keeps the pair score on the same −100 to +100 scale. A positive score favours the base currency; a negative score favours the quote. The Desk applies thresholds before assigning a directional label.
The checklist compares factors for both currencies and marks support, opposition, neutrality or unavailable data. The public preview counts available factors; it does not treat an unavailable value as evidence.
Fundamental bias already contains macro and news, so the checklist is not a set of independent votes. A high supporting count does not imply a corresponding probability of profit. The public preview's confluence label and the Desk's fundamental bias are distinct views.
The Desk's pair confidence assesses agreement among available factors, including price momentum, news, COT, macro and the rate differential. It is a rule-based research label, not a statistically calibrated trading forecast. Review opposing factors and data coverage alongside it.
A publication timestamp identifies a platform snapshot. It does not mean that every underlying source was released at that time. Check source dates separately for macro data, rates, news, calendar events and positioning.
Review both sides of the pair after relevant new information. A central bank decision, economic release or shift in headline tone can change the inputs. Price momentum can also contradict fundamental bias. An invalidation condition should describe which evidence would weaken the research view, rather than promise a particular price move.
COT reflects the reported futures positions of a defined trader category. It does not measure all participants in the spot forex market. Read the report date, category and contract mapping before interpreting historical changes.
A historical price index is price history; it is not historical fundamental bias. A reliable bias history requires dated score snapshots and the methodology used at those dates. Missing histories must remain unavailable rather than be reconstructed with invented values.
Calendar forecasts are expectations supplied by the source. Actual releases, revisions and market pricing can change the interpretation. Event-impact labels are context, not a guarantee of direction or magnitude.